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Typically organizations will see a twenty-percent decline in membership each year. Holding that number and trying to reduce it requires extra effort. In this article, Bunnie Riedel has specific suggestions for how to make sure your organization's "churn" doesn't get out of control. She also makes a pretty good case for having anniversary renewals throughout the year, rather than having all the memberships come due at once, as at the beginning of the year.
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I hope this article is outdated because it is no longer accurate. In the article she suggests that an organization send the same letter every month before expire starting 90 days prior to expire date. I would never recommend any organization use such a tactic. Renewal efforts need to be different. They need to stand out from each other as well as from all of the other mail in the mailbox. They need to become more urgent as you get closer to expire date.
Also, why would you offer something special at the end of your renewal series. You are simply training your members to renew late. If you are going to offer something special at any time I suggest doing it at the beginning of your series to reward people for renewing early.
Finally, I don't know if she truly meant mailing when she said mail the same letter but one channel renewal series are not as effective as multi-channel renewal series. I would throw in some email contact, phone contact and also change who the contact comes from as well.